Below are several e-mail letters that were posted on the QUAKE listserv in October 1994. The
original letter prompted numerous responses, some of which I have included. (I didn't save my
response, but you can glean its content from Mr. Frick's response to me). This exchange
illustrates some details of scientific thinking, particularly regarding critical inquiry.
Original message
Date:Sun, 9 Oct 1994 08:53:49 +0800
From: Wally Frick <wfrick@yarrow.wt.uwa.edu.au>
Dear netters,
I have now been a subscriber to this list for well over a year and follow with interest all the
discussions including those on methods of quake predictions. Last year I advised of my
unorthodox method and attracted the ridicule of many a listmember. However, in the light of
having accurately predicted a number of recent quakes and their magnitude in front of reliable
witnesses I wish to seek some comment from listmembers who have heard of similar
observations.
Some 12-14 hours prior to a major quake a pencil to cigar-shaped cloud formation distinct from
any other cloud patterns appears in the sky here over Perth, Western Australia. Its elevation from
seen from ground level is 25-30 degrees. Its direction when aligned with compass directions
indicates the direction of the quake. It is usually slightly thicker at one end, thus from experience
having found that this points to the epicenter. The thickness of the cloud itself and that varies
from pencil shape 4.6 - 6 on the Richter scale to cigar-shape 6 upwards as in the recent case of
the Hokaido quake. At 16.50 Lt = 08.50 UST yesterday another such cloud the length of which
relates to the distance from the observer's point to the epicenter of the quake and has been learnt
by trial and error, appeared pointing again to Kokaideo and indicating presumably yet another of
many aftershooks which might occur some 12 hours after observation and on this occasion at
magnitude 5-6 on the Richter scale. This morning at 07.40 LT 9-10-94 or at 23.40 UST 8-10-94
a cloud was observed whose compass direction and length pinpoints the North Island of New
Zealand with an estimated magnitude of around 6 on the Richter scale.
I am going public with this what many of you will call utter nonsense, because I am puzzled by
these phenomena which I have now observed for some 8 years and have only since our last list
discussion been recording upon the advice of some of you. Please, you do not have to send
messages of abuse, I only seek advice of other listmembers who might be able to suggest how
such phenomena in the sky can relate to remote quakes. I have no psychic abilities nor am I a
certifiable nutcase. Thank you for your indulgence, if anyone on the list feels some useful
purpose may be served by these observations which have given me a better than 50 % success
rate so far, I will be pleased to post these observations. Have a nice day.
Wally Frick
Edith Cowan University Perth |
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